Hitwise Ranks remax.com No. 2 on Quarterly Top 10 List

Hitwise Ranks remax.com No. 2 on Quarterly Top 10 List

Based on share of visits among all U.S. Web sites in the "Business and Finance - Real Estate" category, remax.com is a Hitwise Top 10 Award winner at No. 2 for the quarter ending March 2008.

The Hitwise Top 10 Award recognizes Web sites from over 160 industries that are leaders in their field.

In March alone, remax.com received nearly 6 million hits. About half of them were direct, which means 3 million hits came from top-of-mind brand recall and consumers typing in "remax.com" to access the Web site.

Continuing efforts to increase visibility of remax.com through TV, print and radio ads, plus Search Engine Marketing strategies, put remax.com into the second-place position ahead of competitors such as homegain.com, realestate.com, century21.com and coldwellbanker.com.
(Source: Carat and iProspect Monthly Report - April 2008.)

RE/MAX Desert Showcase for all your real estate needs!! 623-979-8888

West Valley Home Resales Rise As Prices Are Slashed

West Valley Home Resales Rise As Prices Are Slashed

Home sellers in the West Valley have slashed their asking prices up to 30 percent since February, and the price cuts are spurring sales in Surprise, El Mirage and Goodyear, according to a report from Arizona State University.

Though home resale activity has dropped in Glendale, Peoria and Avondale, it is only because fewer homes are for sale in those communities, since they have more established economies and infrastructures and less housing turnover, said Jay Butler, director of realty studies at ASU's Morrison School of Management and Agribusiness.

The ASU report measured the Valley's home resale activity from February to March. The school is expected to release April sales figures later this month.

In the West Valley, resale figures show that home values in the newest West Valley communities are still correcting, where as values in the more established municipalities closer to metro Phoenix have become more stable, Butler said.

"You really got two sets of communities: Glendale and Peoria are older, more mature communities. And then, there are the new ones under development like Surprise, El Mirage to some degree, and Goodyear . . . those are the ones that really got hit hard (by the housing slowdown)," he said.

The steep price drops in those newer communities have revived buyer interest, however.

Butler said that investors are once again purchasing homes in those areas, as are new snowbirds.

When looking to buy or sell your West Valley area home, call the experts at Re/Max Desert Showcase. Speak To A Professional RE/MAX Phoenix Realtor NOW....Call : 623-979-8888

The Housing Crisis is Over -- Wall Street Journal

The Housing Crisis is Over -- Wall Street Journal

The dire headlines coming fast and furious in the financial and popular press suggest that the housing crisis is intensifying. Yet it is very likely that April 2008 will mark the bottom of the U.S. housing market. Yes, the housing market is bottoming right now.

How can this be? For starters, a bottom does not mean that prices are about to return to the heady days of 2005. That probably won't happen for another 15 years. It just means that the trend is no longer getting worse, which is the critical factor.

Most people forget that the current housing bust is nearly three years old. Home sales peaked in July 2005.

New home sales are down a staggering 63% from peak levels of 1.4 million. Housing starts have fallen more than 50%, and, adjusted for population growth, are back to the trough levels of 1982.

Furthermore, residential construction is close to 15-year lows at 3.8% of GDP; by the fourth quarter of this year, it will probably hit the lowest level ever. So what's going to stop the housing decline? Very simply, the same thing that caused the bust: affordability.

The boom made housing unaffordable for many American families, especially first-time home buyers. During the 1990s and early 2000s, it took 19% of average monthly income to service a conforming mortgage on the average home purchased. By 2005 and 2006, it was absorbing 25% of monthly income. For first time buyers, it went from 29% of income to 37%. That just proved to be too much.

Prices got so high that people who intended to actually live in the houses they purchased (as opposed to speculators) stopped buying. This caused the bubble to burst.

Since then, house prices have fallen 10%-15%, while incomes have kept growing (albeit more slowly recently) and mortgage rates have come down 70 basis points from their highs. As a result, it now takes 19% of monthly income for the average home buyer, and 31% of monthly income for the first-time home buyer, to purchase a house. In other words, homes on average are back to being as affordable as during the best of times in the 1990s. Numerous households that had been priced out of the market can now afford to get in.

The next question is: Even if home sales pick up, how can home prices stop falling with so many houses vacant and unsold? The flip but true answer: because they always do.

In the past five major housing market corrections (and there were some big ones, such as in the early 1980s when home sales also fell by 50%-60% and prices fell 12%-15% in real terms), every time home sales bottomed, the pace of house-price declines halved within one or two months.

The explanation is that by the time home sales stop declining, inventories of unsold homes have usually already started falling in absolute terms and begin to peak out in "months of supply" terms. That's the case right now: New home inventories peaked at 598,000 homes in July 2006, and stand at 482,000 homes as of the end of March. This inventory is equivalent to 11 months of supply, a 25-year high -- but it is similar to 1974, 1982 and 1991 levels, which saw a subsequent slowing in home-price declines within the next six months.

Inventories are declining because construction activity has been falling for such a long time that home completions are now just about undershooting new home sales. In a few months, completions of new homes for sale could be undershooting new home sales by 50,000-100,000 annually.

Inventories will drop even faster to 400,000 -- or seven months of supply -- by the end of 2008.

This shift in inventories will have a significant impact on prices, although house prices won't stop falling entirely until inventories reach five months of supply sometime in 2009. A five-month supply has historically signaled tightness in the housing market.

Many pundits claim that house prices need to fall another 30% to bring them back in line with where they've been historically. This is usually based on an analysis of house prices adjusted for inflation: Real house prices are 30% above their 40-year, inflation-adjusted average, so they must fall 30%. This simplistic analysis is appealing on the surface, but is flawed for a variety of reasons.

Most importantly, it neglects the fact that a great majority of Americans buy their houses with mortgages.

And if one buys a house with a mortgage, the most important factor in deciding what to pay for the house is how much of one's income is required to be able to make the mortgage payments on the house. Today the rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is 5.7%. Back in 1981, the rate hit 18.5%. Comparing today's house prices to the 1970s or 1980s, when mortgage rates were stratospheric, is misguided and misleading.

This is all good news for the broader economy. The housing bust has been subtracting a full percentage point from GDP for almost two years now, which is very large for a sector that represents less than 5% of economic activity.

When the rate of house-price declines halves, there will be a wholesale shift in markets' perceptions. All of a sudden, the expected value of the collateral (i.e. houses) for much of the lending that went on for the past decade will change. Right now, when valuing the collateral, market participants including banks are extrapolating the current pace of house price declines for another two to three years; this has a significant impact on the amount of delinquencies, foreclosures and credit losses that lenders are expected to face.

More home sales and smaller price declines means fewer homeowners will be underwater on their mortgages. They will thus have less incentive to walk away and opt for foreclosure.

A milder house-price decline scenario could lead to increases in the market value of a lot of the securitized mortgages that have been responsible for $300 billion of write-downs in the past year.

Even if write-backs do not occur, stabilizing collateral values will have a huge impact on the markets' perception of risk related to housing, the financial system, and the economy.

We are of course experiencing a serious housing bust, with serious economic consequences that are still unfolding. The odds are that the reverberations will lead to sub-trend growth for a couple of years.

Nonetheless, housing led us into this credit crisis and this recession. It is likely to lead us out. And that process is underway, right now.

Source: Wall Street Journal, By Cyril Moulle-Berteaux

May 6, 2008 Mr. Moulle-Berteaux is managing partner of Traxis Partners LP, a hedge fund firm based in New York.

Widespread RE/MAX Report Examines Affordability in Canada

Widespread RE/MAX Report Examines Affordability in Canada

A new report from RE/MAX of Western Canada and RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic is making waves.

The region's RE/MAX Affordability Report, which found that first-time buyers remain steadfast in their determination to buy a home despite home-buying activity slowing in Canada, received widespread attention in the Canadian news media.

The report, which was released across the country, was quoted in several of the nation's leading newspapers, such as the Globe and Mail, the Saskatoon Star-Phoenix and the Province, among others. Various radio and television stations and 23 Web sites also mentioned the report.

In all, 5.5 million consumers were exposed to the message.

While higher housing values and tight inventory levels have hampered home-buying activity so far this year, longer amortization periods and alternative housing types have offset the impact on most major markets across the country, according to the report.

The Globe and Mail referenced the RE/MAX report in the opening paragraphs of its story, "Legions of first-timers are adding years of extra mortgage payments so they can buy a house, or putting little or no money into a down payment."

The report reveals that despite a higher degree of frustration in the marketplace than in previous years, first-time buyers are resolute in their quest to buy a home. In fact, entry-level purchasers are adjusting their expectations by sacrificing size, location, and even long-term financial freedom, to overcome challenges such as rising prices and serious supply issues.

First-time purchasers continue to play a pivotal role at both the local and national levels. The impact they have on the housing market is significant, as they are the impetus for sales in the mid-to-upper price ranges. As long as this segment of the market remains healthy, the real estate outlook will continue to be favorable. It is a great time to buy in Sunny Arizona!
Copyright © 2008 RE/MAX International Inc. 5/1/08

All Canadian Buyers, please contact RE/MAX Desert Showcase today to inquire about Arizona Properties! 623-979-8888

Instant Profits Run Bill Poulos Live Free Web Seminar

Instant Profits Run Bill Poulos Live Free Web Seminar - Limited Space Avaliable For May 9, 2008

34 year trading 'vet' spills the beans on Thursday...Worried about a portfolio 'wipeout'? Watch this...Emergency trading web-seminar (#1 tip revealed)...

I seriously hope we're not too late but we just got wind of this...

Someone convinced 30 yr. trading veteran Bill Poulos to spill the beans to a small group of traders in a LIVE web seminar, for NOTHING!

If you don't know Bill, he's one of the most well-respected names in trading education circles for teaching methods he himself uses and for his dedication to making his students better traders.

And since the release of his recent consumer trading guide, The Profit Button, Bill's been getting hammered with tons of questions about the somewhat controversial findings in the guide...

* So, he decided to go LIVE on Thursday, May 9th at 9pm Eastern (New York Time) on a special one-time web-seminar where he'll address all the controversy and also reveal the #1 trading secret to his simple but highly effective trading method (which is NOT in the report)... Click here to reserve your space!!!

Limited Registrations Available...
"In Just 60 Minutes, You Could Gain A Lifetime Of 'Time-Tested' Trading Knowledge, Straight From The Mouth Of A 30+ Year Veteran... If You Register Quickly Enough..."

...this secret is the ONE thing too many traders IGNORE, and it can often result in a complete portfolio wipeout! You won't want to miss this, so, reserve your spot now: Click here to reserve your space!!! (That will give you the private password to the web-seminar.)

If you can get in, you'll also discover:

** The 4 simple steps successful traders know that you don't...

** How to maximize your profit potential in any market...

** How to evaluate any trading method to see if it has a "Winnin.g Edge" (and why you should abandon it immediately if it doesn't)...

** How a simple formula that an 8th grader could solve can determine the profitability of any trading method...

** ...and, you can also take part in a rare, live Q&A with Bill...

This exclusive, live event is Thursday, May 8th at 9PM Eastern Time.

...BUT...

There is extremely limited "seating" for this event because the virtual seminar room can only hold so many traders. Honestly, registration may already be locked out (depending on when you get this message), but give it a try here:

Click here to reserve your FREE Instant Profits Run Webinar space!!!

If you've been wondering why some traders have success in the markets, while others continue to flounder again and again, this could be one of your best chances to get your trading "fixed"
once and for all.

About The Presenter Bill Poulos

Bill Poulos has been trading the markets since 1974. He's a retired automotive executive who holds a bachelor's degree in Industrial Engineering, and a Master's degree in Business Administration, with a major in Finance.

In his over 30 years of trading experience, Bill has developed dozens of trading systems and methods. In 2001, he formed Profits Run, Inc. to impart his trading experience and wisdom to others so they could shortcut their learning curve and ultimately potentially skyrocket their earnings in the markets.

Bill now has thousands of students all around the world, from all walks of life, and at all experience levels. He prides himself on providing honest and realistic trading education, and is known for the continuous and ongoing support and follow-up he offers his students.

His partner in Profits Run is his son, Greg, who is responsible for marketing and all technical support. In addition, Bill also has a full-time operations staff to ensure his trading education is delivered and supported in a high-quality and timely manner.

Good Trading

Pace of Decline In Home Prices Sets a Record . Great Deals For Buyers

Pace of Decline In Home Prices Sets a Record

By JAMES R. HAGERTY and KELLY EVANS
Wall Street Journal

A closely watched gauge of U.S. home prices shows they are falling sharply across most of the nation, as a deepening slump in the housing market threatens to damp consumer spending.

Home prices in 10 major metropolitan areas in October were down 6.7% from a year earlier, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price indexes, released yesterday by credit-rating firm Standard & Poor’s. That exceeded the previous record year-to-year decline of 6.3% in April 1991, when the economy was emerging from a recession.

New statistics from the Census Bureau, meanwhile, indicate a slowdown in the number of Americans moving to states that led the housing boom, including Nevada, Florida and Arizona.

The silver lining behind the latest home-price data is that they signal the market is making what most economists see as a necessary adjustment, dragging home prices back into closer alignment with Americans’ ability to pay. The market is working its way “back to reality,” says David Seiders, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders. He thinks house prices will bottom out by early 2009.

Some other economists say that might not happen before 2010. “The housing shock is only about halfway over, and housing prices will continue to fall well into 2009,” says Lehman Brothers economist Michelle Meyer.

During the housing boom in the first half of this decade, fast-rising home prices made it easy for homeowners to take out home-equity loans or refinance their primary mortgages to extract some cash. That helped sustain consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity.

Economists now worry that falling home prices will prompt consumers to pull back on spending enough to slow growth or even tip the economy into recession. “Eventually what’s happening in the housing market is going to catch up with us,” says Patrick Newport, an economist at research-firm Global Insight Inc.

Fears of a sharp drop in consumption were assuaged somewhat last week when the government reported that consumer spending in November grew at the fastest pace in 3½ years. And though holiday sales fell short of retailers’ expectations, consumers, spurred by discounts, spent heavily in the final days before Christmas. Economists say that even if overall spending slows in December, the strength seen in October and November would be enough to keep the economy afloat in the near term.

“The most important determinant of [spending] is always income,” says Harm Bandholz, an economist at UniCredit in New York. He said that Americans’ disposable income has risen a “solid” 2.5% over last year. He and others say that as long as the job market holds up and incomes keep growing, Americans will continue to spend.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index showed that some of the fastest declines in home prices are in metropolitan areas that were among the hottest during the housing boom. Prices were down 12.4% from a year earlier in Miami, 11.1% in San Diego, 10.7% in Las Vegas and 10.6% in Phoenix.

Home prices are still up from a year ago in some cities, such as Seattle and Charlotte, N.C. And people who bought their homes several years ago still are sitting on sizable gains in most of the country.

The boom more than doubled prices in many populous areas near the coasts. The run-up was fueled in part by unusually low interest rates, which slashed the cost of monthly mortgage payments. In addition, in the wake of the technology-stock bubble, many Americans viewed real estate as a safer investment than stocks, and so poured increasing sums into second homes and rental properties. Home sales began to slow in mid-2005. Prices leveled off and then started declining in 2006. Over the past year, mortgage defaults have soared, leading to rapid growth in foreclosures.

Bette Zerba, a Realtor with Re/Max Desert Showcase in Phoenix, says local residents trying to sell their homes can’t compete with foreclosed homes selling for $50,000 to $100,000 less than theirs. “The sellers now are having to reduce their prices by 20% to 30% to compete,” she says.

As the market adjusts, single-family housing starts have fallen 55% from their January 2006 peak to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 829,000. In recent months, lenders and investors have begun owning up to billions of dollars of losses on mortgages and related securities, clearing the decks for an eventual revival in lending.

But the recovery of the housing market is likely to be a gradual process. That’s partly because the boom left prices so far out of whack with incomes. As measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller national index, home prices jumped 74% in the six years through 2006. During the same period, U.S. median household income rose 15%. (Neither figure is adjusted for inflation.) That made housing unaffordable for many Americans.

For a few years, lax lending standards — some loans required no down payments and offered low introductory interest rates — meant borrowers could buy more expensive houses than they could really afford. But lenders have been burned by a surge in defaults that started in 2006, and such mortgages generally are no longer available. That means house prices will have to fall to a level potential buyers can afford.

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com, a research firm in West Chester, Pa., predicts that on average U.S. house prices will decline about 12% by the second quarter of 2009 from their peak in the second quarter of 2006. He expects household income to rise by about the same amount over that period.

Signs of this adjustment are apparent in the latest quarterly analysis of house prices by National City Corp., a Cleveland banking concern, and Global Insight. Economists at the two firms look at home prices in relation to household income and other factors, including population density (an indication of how much land is available) and past differences in prices caused by factors like climate and schools. In the third quarter, they found, prices in 38 of the nation’s 330 metro areas were more than 33% above a level that could be explained by fundamental drivers of housing costs. That was down from 48 metro areas in this “overvalued” category in the second quarter.

“Parts of the housing market are scratching bottom right now,” says Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City. Sales of new and existing homes are down about 32% from their mid-2005 peak, he says, and probably won’t fall much further before leveling off or starting to recover slowly.

Prices of new homes are likely to start recovering in the first half of 2008 because builders are aggressively chopping prices to clear inventories, says Edward Leamer, an economics professor at the University of California, Los Angeles. Recent price cuts by builders may have reduced demand in the short term because they encourage potential buyers to expect further discounts.

But prices of previously occupied homes are likely to continue falling slowly for several years, Prof. Leamer says. That’s because people trying to sell their homes often don’t have an urgent need to move, and try to hold out for a price they consider fair.

On average, prices of previously occupied homes, as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller indexes, are likely to drop another 7% in 2008 before flattening out in 2009, says Thomas Lawler, a housing economist in Vienna, Va.

Inventories of unsold homes remain very high and may increase in the new year as lenders dump more foreclosed houses on the market. The number of detached single-family homes listed for sale in October was enough to last 10½ months at the current sales rate, according to the National Association of Realtors. That was more than double the level of two years ago and the highest since 1985.

Along with inventories, the nation’s home ownership rate will have to adjust to today’s realities as many Americans who stretched too far to buy homes in recent years go back to renting. The home ownership rate in the third quarter stood at 68.2% of households, down from a peak of 69.2% in 2004. Even a small drop in that rate has a big effect on housing demand. Economists at Goldman Sachs have warned that falling home ownership rates may force a further 40% drop in housing starts next year, to an annual rate as low as 500,000 units, before construction starts to recover.

The mortgage market also needs to adjust further. Most of the funding for home loans comes from investors who buy securities backed by bundles of mortgages. Since August, many of those investors have shunned the market amid fears of rising defaults. As a result, lenders generally are focusing on loans that can be sold to government-sponsored investors Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, or insured by the Federal Housing Administration. So-called jumbo loans — those above $417,000, too big to be sold to Fannie or Freddie — have grown much more expensive, deterring buyers in high-cost areas.

The current scarcity of funds available for mortgage lending creates a chicken-and-egg situation, says Prof. Leamer. Investors who provide funding for home loans don’t want to commit more money until they believe the housing market is getting better. But it’s hard for the housing market to rebound as long as mortgage credit is tight. Lower prices eventually will break this impasse, by luring buyers back into the market and reassuring investors that the market is finding a bottom, he says.